Key Points
Builder sentiment in June dropped 2 points from May to 32 on the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Anything below 50 is considered negative.
Analysts had been expecting a slight improvement, given recent tariff negotiations and pullbacks by the Trump administration.
This index has only seen a lower reading than June’s level twice since 2012.
Not surprising, given:
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The housing market cycle peaked in 2022, has been slowly trending down since, and the pace of decline is picking up. Inventory is way up and prices are down.
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Tariffs have greatly increased the cost of inputs used in making homes, increasing the price of lumber, steel, copper, appliances, etc., etc.
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Deportation of the labor force greatly increases the cost of labor to build the homes. After agriculture, the largest industry using immigrant labor is construction. Kicking a major portion of the construction labor force out of the country is guaranteed to drive up the price of the labor that remains.
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If only interest rates could drop to the same levels…